Data-driven coaching to improve statewide outcomes in CABG: before and after interventional study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of quality improvement initiatives program (QIP) on coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG) remains scarce, despite improved outcomes in other surgical areas. This study aims to evaluate the impact of a package of QIP on mortality rates among patients undergoing CABG. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study utilized data from the multicenter database Registro Paulista de Cirurgia Cardiovascular II (REPLICCAR II), spanning from July 2017 to June 2019. Data from 4018 isolated CABG adult patients were collected and analyzed in three phases: before-implementation, implementation, and after-implementation of the intervention (which comprised QIP training for the hospital team). Propensity Score Matching was used to balance the groups of 2170 patients each for a comparative analysis of the following outcomes: reoperation, deep sternal wound infection/mediastinitis ≤30 days, cerebrovascular accident, acute kidney injury, ventilation time >24 h, length of stay <6 days, length of stay >14 days, morbidity and mortality, and operative mortality. A multiple regression model was constructed to predict mortality outcomes. RESULTS: Following implementation, there was a significant reduction of operative mortality (61.7%, P =0.046), as well as deep sternal wound infection/mediastinitis ( P <0.001), sepsis ( P =0.002), ventilation time in hours ( P <0.001), prolonged ventilation time ( P =0.009), postoperative peak blood glucose ( P <0.001), total length of hospital stay ( P <0.001). Additionally, there was a greater use of arterial grafts, including internal thoracic ( P <0.001) and radial ( P =0.038), along with a higher rate of skeletonized dissection of the internal thoracic artery. CONCLUSIONS: QIP was associated with a 61.7% reduction in operative mortality following CABG. Although not all complications exhibited a decline, the reduction in mortality suggests a possible decrease in failure to rescue during the after-implementation period.

Extubation in the Operating Room After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery Reduces Hospital Stay.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this analysis was to compare the effect of extubating in the operating room (OR) versus and the intensive care unit (ICU) among patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). DESIGN: A retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Ten cardiac referral hospitals in Latin America; participants of the São Paulo Registry of Cardiovascular Surgery II (REPLICCAR II). PARTICIPANTS: The database included a total of 4,015 patients who underwent primary and isolated CABG surgery and were ≥18 years old, of whom 205 patients were extubated in the OR. INTERVENTIONS: The analysis was made after a propensity score matching (PSM) adjustment in the population sample of patients extubated in the OR and ICU by the following variables: sex, age, body mass index, smoking, type of surgery, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, preoperative atrial fibrillation, cardiopulmonary bypass time, preoperative creatinine, and preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: This study focused on the analysis of the ICU and hospital length of stay, need for reintubation, morbidity, and mortality. After PSM, 402 patients were analyzed. Both groups had similar baseline characteristics, such as age (p = 0.132), sex (p = 1.00), and estimated risk of prolonged ventilation (>24 hours, p = 0.168); however, the median ventilation time was significantly shorter in the group extubated in the OR compared to the ICU group (5.67 hours v 17.55 hours, p < 0.001). The group of patients extubated in the ICU had a longer postoperative stay (7.54 ± 3.40 days v 6.41 ± 2.91 days, p < 0.001) and longer total hospitalization time (11.49 ± 5.70 days v 10.36 ± 5.72, p = 0.013) compared to those extubated in the OR. The authors did not observe a significant difference in the need for reintubation, morbidity, or mortality rates among the evaluated groups. CONCLUSIONS: In the REPLICCAR II database, extubation performed in the OR was associated with a reduced length of postoperative and total hospital stays compared to extubation in the ICU.

Transit-time flow measurement parameters after protamine infusion in CABG surgeries.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to evaluate protamine sulfate effects on graft's blood flow by comparing transit-time flow measurement (TTFM) values before and after protamine administration. METHODS: This is an observational study with data collected between years 2018 and 2020. Immediate graft patency was evaluated using TTFM. Only patients with TTFM parameters registered before and after protamine infusion were included. The main three parameters studied were:  mean graft flow  (MGF),  pulsatility index (PI), and  diastolic flow (DF). In the first analysis, all conduits were evaluated regardless of the surgical technique used. In a second analysis, on-pump and off-pump groups were compared. Evaluated grafts were left internal thoracic artery, saphenous vein graft (SVG), radial artery, and right internal thoracic artery. Since SVG was numerically the most used graft, an exclusive analysis was created. RESULTS: Our study included 575 patients, resulting in a total of 1686 grafts, mean 2.93 grafts/patient. Off-pump surgery was performed in 158 patients. Before protamine infusion, inadequate TTFM parameters were observed in 3.8% of grafts. Overall, after protamine administration, MGF decreased in all grafts, but its reduction was not statistically significant. PI values increased in the SVG and DF values reduced in LIMA grafts. SVG group analysis showed that after protamine PI values were higher in OM1 and RCA. DF values increased in RCA. The comparison between off and on-pump surgeries, showed that in off-pump cases TTFM measures did not present statistically significant differences. CONCLUSION: Significant variations were observed in TTFM values before and after protamine administration. Although different, those values remained within the normal reference ranges. We recommend that flow measurement should be performed before protamine infusion.

The arrival of COVID-19 in Brazil and the impact on coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE STUDY: This study analyzed the arrival of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Brazil and its impact on coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. METHODS: Patients undergoing isolated CABG in six hospitals in Brazil were divided into two periods: pre-COVID-19 (March-May 2019, N = 468) and COVID-19 era (March-May 2020, N = 182). Perioperative data were included on a dedicated REDCap platform. Patients with clinical and tomographic criteria and/or PCR (+) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection were considered COVID-19 (+). Logistic regression analysis was performed to create a multiple predictive model for mortality after CABG in COVID-19 era. RESULTS: Compared to 2019, in 2020, CABG surgeries had a 2.8-fold increased mortality risk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1-7.6, p = .041), patients who evolved with COVID-19 had a 11-fold increased mortality risk (95% CI: 2.2-54.9, p < .003), rates of morbidities and readmission to the intensive care unit. The surgical volume was decreased by 60%. The model to predict mortality after CABG in the COVID-19 era was validated with good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow = 1.43) and discrimination (receiver operating characteristic = 0.78). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic had an adverse impact on mortality, morbidity and volume of patients undergoing CABG.

Increased number of ventricular septal rupture cases after acute myocardial infarction in 2020.

INTRODUCTION: Ventricular septal rupture (VSR) is a serious mechanical complication after acute coronary syndrome and is related to high mortality. Even with advances in the management of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) such as reperfusion therapies, complication rates are still high. During quarantine, patients presenting mechanical complications after AMI have increased in our institution. METHODS: From a retrospective database analysis in our institution between the years 2004 and 2020, we identified 37 cases of VSR after AMI. Four chronic cases were excluded from our analysis. The primary endpoint was to identify baseline characteristics that increased 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Among 33 acute cases of VSR, 24 cases were submitted to surgery. The 30-day mortality of the operated patients was 45.8%. From 2004 to 2019 our average number of operations of VSR was 1.9 cases/year with an increase to 4 cases/year in 2020. Diabetes mellitus, age, cardiogenic shock, and use of intra-aortic balloon pump were associated with significantly increased mortality using logistic regression. CONCLUSION: We reported an increased number of mechanical complication cases from April to September 2020, compared to our historical records. Despite therapeutic advances, mortality rates remain high. Although the number of cases is small to conclude that the pandemic was responsible for this augmentation, we believe that it is related to the decreased number of patients seeking medical assistance.

Geometric reconstruction of a left ventricular aneurysm with coronary artery bypass graft.

Left ventricular aneurysm is a late mechanical complication of untreated acute myocardial infarction. It has become relatively rare since the development of percutaneous cardiac intervention.  Most aneurysms are located at the anterior ventricular wall, and are caused by total occlusion of the left anterior descending artery. Usually, the anterior and apical walls initially become akinetic; this can sometimes evolve into dyskinesia. Thrombus formation is a common finding, since the apical contractility is impaired. This tutorial illustrates the challenging technical aspects of a large thrombus removal, along with the geometric reconstruction of the left ventricular aneurysm and coronary bypass surgery.

Analysis of >100. 000 Cardiovascular Surgeries Performed at the Heart Institute and a New Era of Outcomes / Análise de >100. 000 Cirurgias Cardiovasculares Realizadas no Instituto do Coração e a Nova Era com Foco nos Resultados

Abstract Background: The current challenge of cardiovascular surgery (CVS) is to improve the outcomes in increasingly severe patients. In this respect, continuous quality improvement (CQI) programs have had an impact on outcomes. Objective: To assess the evolution of the incidence and mortality due to CVS, as well as the current outcomes of the Hospital das Clínicas Heart Institute of the University of São Paulo Medical School (InCor-HCFMUSP). Methods: An outcome analysis of CVSs performed at the InCor, between January 1984 and June 2019. We observed the surgical volume and mortality rates in 5 time periods: 1st (1984-1989), 2nd (1990-1999), 3rd (2000-2007), 4th (2008-2015) and 5th (2016-2019). The CQI program was implemented between 2015 and 2016. The analysis included the total number of surgeries and the evolution of the most frequent procedures. Results: A total of 105,599 CCVs were performed, with an annual mean of 2,964 procedures and mortality of 5,63%. When comparing the 4th and the 5th periods, the average global volume of surgeries was increased from 2,943 to 3,139 (p = 0.368), bypass graft (CABG), from 638 to 597 (p = 0.214), heart valve surgery, from 372 to 465 (p = 0.201), and congenital heart disease surgery, from 530 to 615 (p = 0.125). The average global mortality went from 7.8% to 5% (p < 0.0001); in CABG surgery, from 5.8% to 3.1% (p < 0.0001); in heart valve surgery, from 14% to 7.5% (p < 0.0001) and in congenital heart disease surgery, from 12.1% to 9.6% (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: In spite of a recent trend towards increased surgical volume, there was a significant decrease in operative mortality in the groups studied. After the implementation of the CQI program, the mortality rates were closer to international standards.

Resumo Fundamento: O desafio atual da cirurgia cardiovascular (CCV) é melhorar resultados em pacientes cada vez mais graves. Nesse sentido, Programas de Melhoria Contínua da Qualidade (PMCQ) tem impactado os resultados. Objetivo: Avaliar a evolução da incidência e mortalidade das CCV, assim como os resultados atuais do Instituto do Coração do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (InCor). Métodos: Análise dos resultados das CCV realizadas no InCor entre jan-1984 e jun-2019. Foram observadas as tendências dos volumes cirúrgicos e da mortalidade em 5 períodos 1º (1984-1989), 2º (1990-1999), 3º (2000-2007), 4º (2008-2015) e 5º (2016-2019). O PMCQ foi estabelecido entre 2015-2016. A análise incluiu o total de cirurgias e a evolução dos procedimentos mais frequentes. Resultados: Foram realizadas 105.599 CCV, com uma média anual de 2.964 procedimentos e mortalidade de 5,63%. Comparando o 4º com o 5º período, o volume global médio de cirurgias foi de 2.943 para 3.139 (p = 0,368), cirurgias de revascularização miocárdica (CRM) de 638 para 597 (p = 0,214), valvas cardíacas de 372 para 465 (p = 0,201) e cardiopatias congênitas de 530 para 615 (p = 0,125). A mortalidade média global passou de 7,8% para 5% (p < 0,0001), nas cirurgias de revascularização miocárdica de 5,8% para 3,1% (p < 0,0001), nas cirurgias valvares de 14% para 7,5% (p < 0,0001) e nas cirurgias de cardiopatias congênitas de 12,1% para 9,6% (p < 0,0001). Conclusão: Embora haja uma tendência recente ao aumento dos volumes cirúrgicos, houve uma diminuição significativa da mortalidade cirúrgica nos grupos analisados. Após o estabelecimento do PMCQ, as taxas de mortalidade se aproximaram a dos padrões internacionais.

Analysis of >100,000 Cardiovascular Surgeries Performed at the Heart Institute and a New Era of Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The current challenge of cardiovascular surgery (CVS) is to improve the outcomes in increasingly severe patients. In this respect, continuous quality improvement (CQI) programs have had an impact on outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To assess the evolution of the incidence and mortality due to CVS, as well as the current outcomes of the Hospital das Clínicas Heart Institute of the University of São Paulo Medical School (InCor-HCFMUSP). METHODS: An outcome analysis of CVSs performed at the InCor, between January 1984 and June 2019. We observed the surgical volume and mortality rates in 5 time periods: 1st (1984-1989), 2nd (1990-1999), 3rd (2000-2007), 4th (2008-2015) and 5th (2016-2019). The CQI program was implemented between 2015 and 2016. The analysis included the total number of surgeries and the evolution of the most frequent procedures. RESULTS: A total of 105,599 CCVs were performed, with an annual mean of 2,964 procedures and mortality of 5,63%. When comparing the 4th and the 5th periods, the average global volume of surgeries was increased from 2,943 to 3,139 (p = 0.368), bypass graft (CABG), from 638 to 597 (p = 0.214), heart valve surgery, from 372 to 465 (p = 0.201), and congenital heart disease surgery, from 530 to 615 (p = 0.125). The average global mortality went from 7.8% to 5% (p < 0.0001); in CABG surgery, from 5.8% to 3.1% (p < 0.0001); in heart valve surgery, from 14% to 7.5% (p < 0.0001) and in congenital heart disease surgery, from 12.1% to 9.6% (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: In spite of a recent trend towards increased surgical volume, there was a significant decrease in operative mortality in the groups studied. After the implementation of the CQI program, the mortality rates were closer to international standards.

Predictive performance of six mortality risk scores and the development of a novel model in a prospective cohort of patients undergoing valve surgery secondary to rheumatic fever.

BACKGROUND: Mortality prediction after cardiac procedures is an essential tool in clinical decision making. Although rheumatic cardiac disease remains a major cause of heart surgery in the world no previous study validated risk scores in a sample exclusively with this condition. OBJECTIVES: Develop a novel predictive model focused on mortality prediction among patients undergoing cardiac surgery secondary to rheumatic valve conditions. METHODS: We conducted prospective consecutive all-comers patients with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) referred for surgical treatment of valve disease between May 2010 and July of 2015. Risk scores for hospital mortality were calculated using the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet, EuroSCORE II, InsCor, AmblerSCORE, GuaragnaSCORE, and the New York SCORE. In addition, we developed the rheumatic heart valve surgery score (RheSCORE). RESULTS: A total of 2,919 RHD patients underwent heart valve surgery. After evaluating 13 different models, the top performing areas under the curve were achieved using Random Forest (0.982) and Neural Network (0.952). Most influential predictors across all models included left atrium size, high creatinine values, a tricuspid procedure, reoperation and pulmonary hypertension. Areas under the curve for previously developed scores were all below the performance for the RheSCORE model: 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (0.876), EuroSCORE II (0.857), InsCor (0.835), Ambler (0.831), Guaragna (0.816) and the New York score (0.834). A web application is presented where researchers and providers can calculate predicted mortality based on the RheSCORE. CONCLUSIONS: The RheSCORE model outperformed pre-existing scores in a sample of patients with rheumatic cardiac disease.

Do We Need to Personalize Renal Function Assessment in the Stratification of Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery? / É Necessário Personalizar a Avaliação da Função Renal na Estratificação de Pacientes Submetidos à Cirurgia Cardíaca?

Abstract Background: Renal dysfunction is an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality in cardiac surgery. For a better assessment of renal function, calculation of creatinine clearance (CC) may be necessary. Objective: To objectively evaluate whether CC is a better risk predictor than serum creatinine (SC) in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Methods: Analysis of 3,285 patients registered in a prospective, consecutive and mandatory manner in the Sao Paulo Registry of Cardiovascular Surgery (REPLICCAR) between November 2013 and January 2015. Values of SC, CC (Cockcroft-Gault) and EuroSCORE II were obtained. Association analysis of SC and CC with morbidity and mortality was performed by calibration and discrimination tests. Independent multivariate models with SC and CC were generated by multiple logistic regression to predict morbidity and mortality following cardiac surgery. Results: Despite the association between SC and mortality, it did not calibrate properly the risk groups. There was an association between CC and mortality with good calibration of risk groups. In mortality risk prediction, SC was uncalibrated with values > 1.35 mg /dL (p < 0.001). The ROC curve showed that CC is better than SC in predicting both morbidity and mortality risk. In the multivariate model without CC, SC was the only predictor of morbidity, whereas in the model without SC, CC was not only a mortality predictor, but also the only morbidity predictor. Conclusion: Compared with SC, CC is a better parameter of renal function in risk stratification of patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Resumo Fundamentos: Disfunção renal é preditor independente de morbimortalidade após cirurgia cardíaca. Para uma melhor avaliação da função renal, o cálculo do clearance de creatinina (CC) pode ser necessário. Objetivo: Avaliar objetivamente se o CC é melhor que a creatinina sérica (CS) para predizer risco nos pacientes submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca. Métodos: Análise em 3285 pacientes do Registro Paulista de Cirurgia Cardiovascular (REPLICCAR) incluídos de forma prospectiva, consecutiva e mandatória entre novembro de 2013 e janeiro de 2015. Foram obtidos valores de CS, CC (Cockcroft-Gault) e do EuroSCORE II. Análise de associações da CS e do CC com morbimortalidade foi realizada mediante testes de calibração e discriminação. Por regressão logística múltipla, foram criados modelos multivariados independentes com CS e com CC para predição de risco de morbimortalidade após cirurgia cardíaca. Resultados: Apesar da associação entre a CS e morbimortalidade, essa não calibrou adequadamente os grupos de risco. Houve associação entre o CC e morbimortalidade com boa calibração dos grupos de risco. Na predição do risco de mortalidade, a CS ficou descalibrada com valores >1,35 mg/dL (p < 0,001). A curva ROC revelou que o CC é superior à CS na predição de risco de morbimortalidade. No modelo multivariado sem CC, a CS foi a única preditora de morbidade, enquanto que no modelo sem a CS, o CC foi preditor de mortalidade e o único preditor de morbidade. Conclusão: Para avaliação da função renal, o CC é superior que a CS na estratificação de risco dos pacientes submetidos a cirurgia cardíaca.

Do We Need to Personalize Renal Function Assessment in the Stratification of Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery?

BACKGROUND: Renal dysfunction is an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality in cardiac surgery. For a better assessment of renal function, calculation of creatinine clearance (CC) may be necessary. OBJECTIVE: To objectively evaluate whether CC is a better risk predictor than serum creatinine (SC) in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. METHODS: Analysis of 3,285 patients registered in a prospective, consecutive and mandatory manner in the Sao Paulo Registry of Cardiovascular Surgery (REPLICCAR) between November 2013 and January 2015. Values of SC, CC (Cockcroft-Gault) and EuroSCORE II were obtained. Association analysis of SC and CC with morbidity and mortality was performed by calibration and discrimination tests. Independent multivariate models with SC and CC were generated by multiple logistic regression to predict morbidity and mortality following cardiac surgery. RESULTS: Despite the association between SC and mortality, it did not calibrate properly the risk groups. There was an association between CC and mortality with good calibration of risk groups. In mortality risk prediction, SC was uncalibrated with values > 1.35 mg /dL (p < 0.001). The ROC curve showed that CC is better than SC in predicting both morbidity and mortality risk. In the multivariate model without CC, SC was the only predictor of morbidity, whereas in the model without SC, CC was not only a mortality predictor, but also the only morbidity predictor. CONCLUSION: Compared with SC, CC is a better parameter of renal function in risk stratification of patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

InsCor: a simple and accurate method for risk assessment in heart surgery.

BACKGROUND: Risk scores show difficulties to attain the same performance in different populations. OBJECTIVE: To create a simple and accurate risk assessment model for patients submitted to surgery due to coronary and/or valvular disease at Instituto do Coração da Universidade de São Paulo (InCor-HCFMUSP). METHODS: Between 2007 and 2009, 3,000 patients were submitted to surgical procedure due to coronary artery and/or valvular disease at InCor-HCFMUSP. From this record, data of 2/3 of the patients were used for model development (bootstrap technique), and 1/3 for internal validation of the model. The performance of the model (InsCor) was compared to the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) complexes. RESULTS: Only 10 variables were selected: age > 70 years, female sex; coronary revascularization + valve, myocardial infarction < 90 days; reoperation; surgical treatment of aortic valve; surgical treatment of tricuspid valve; creatinine < 2mg/dL; ejection fraction < 30%, and events. The Hosmer Lemeshow test for the InsCor was 0.184, indicating excellent calibration. The area under the ROC curve was 0.79 for the InsCor, 0.81 for the ES and 0.82 for 2000BP, confirming that the models are good and have similar discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: The InsCor and ES performed better than 2000BP at all stages of validation, but the new model, in addition to showing identification with the local risk factors, is simpler and more objective for mortality prediction in patients undergoing surgery due to coronary and/or valvular disease at InCor-HCFMUSP.

InsCor: um método simples e acurado para avaliação do risco em cirurgia cardíaca / InsCor: a simple and accurate method for risk assessment in heart surgery

FUNDAMENTO: Escores de risco apresentam dificuldades para obter o mesmo desempenho em diferentes populações. OBJETIVO: Criar um modelo simples e acurado para avaliação do risco nos pacientes operados de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no Instituto do Coração da Universidade de São Paulo (InCor-HCFMUSP). MÉTODOS: Entre 2007 e 2009, 3.000 pacientes foram operados consecutivamente de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no InCor-HCFMUSP. Desse registro, dados de 2/3 dos pacientes foram utilizados para desenvolvimento do modelo (técnica de bootstrap) e de 1/3 para validação interna do modelo. O desempenho do modelo (InsCor) foi comparado aos complexos 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) e EuroSCORE (ES). RESULTADOS: Apenas 10 variáveis foram selecionadas: Idade > 70 anos; sexo feminino; cirurgia de revascularização coronariana + valva; infarto de miocárdio < 90 dias; reoperação; tratamento cirúrgico da valva aórtica; tratamento cirúrgico da valva tricúspide; creatinina < 2mg/dL; fração de ejeção < 30%; e eventos. O teste de Hosmer Lemeshow para o InsCor foi de 0,184, indicando uma excelente calibração. A área abaixo da curva ROC foi de 0,79 para o InsCor, 0,81 para o ES e 0,82 para o 2000BP, confirmando que os modelos são bons e similares na discriminação. CONCLUSÕES: O InsCor e o ES tiveram melhor desempenho que o 2000BP em todas as fases da validação; pórem o novo modelo, além de se identificar com os fatores de risco locais, é mais simples e objetivo para a predição de mortalidade nos pacientes operados de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no InCor-HCFMUSP.

BACKGROUND: Risk scores show difficulties to attain the same performance in different populations. OBJECTIVE: To create a simple and accurate risk assessment model for patients submitted to surgery due to coronary and/or valvular disease at Instituto do Coração da Universidade de São Paulo (InCor-HCFMUSP). METHODS: Between 2007 and 2009, 3,000 patients were submitted to surgical procedure due to coronary artery and/or valvular disease at InCor-HCFMUSP. From this record, data of 2/3 of the patients were used for model development (bootstrap technique), and 1/3 for internal validation of the model. The performance of the model (InsCor) was compared to the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) complexes. RESULTS: Only 10 variables were selected: age > 70 years, female sex; coronary revascularization + valve, myocardial infarction < 90 days; reoperation; surgical treatment of aortic valve; surgical treatment of tricuspid valve; creatinine < 2mg/dL; ejection fraction < 30%, and events. The Hosmer Lemeshow test for the InsCor was 0.184, indicating excellent calibration. The area under the ROC curve was 0.79 for the InsCor, 0.81 for the ES and 0.82 for 2000BP, confirming that the models are good and have similar discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: The InsCor and ES performed better than 2000BP at all stages of validation, but the new model, in addition to showing identification with the local risk factors, is simpler and more objective for mortality prediction in patients undergoing surgery due to coronary and/or valvular disease at InCor-HCFMUSP.